I've never liked that historical model, that all empires wax and then wane. Mostly because it tends to obscure the details that complicate the picture. Certaintly, England was the economic power, and an incredible amount of the empire's wealth was spent fighting the first world war, and then was finally taxed to the breaking point by the second World War.
Mind you, it's important to remember that GB took out a significant loan from the US to cover war-time expenses, which it has been slowly paying off for the last fifty or so odd years. (Interest is a bitch)
Speculation about which economic strong-hold will or will not fall into decline is a fairly...silly bit of speculation. There's an amusing West Wing annecdote, where Leo McGary meets with two economists, asking what the situation will be in a year. The first says "Excellent!", the second says "Terrible." Leo quietly whispers to himself "I hate economists."
The conventional form of this discussion as is being intimated here is that other economically significant countries in the world are developing at such a rate as to one day equal the (currently) unparalleled strength of the U.S. Arguments are made that the usage of exported labour could lead to a decline in American export value, and lower the significance of the average American who, whilst living in a post-Industrial world, does not actually produce anything *physical.*
Another argument is made that the massive fiscal imbalance - citing the current debt in which the U.S. finds itself - is also a basis upon which to say 'US is declining.' Except that the debt, in comparison to the annual GDP, is not all that troubling a matter. (When you have an annual GDP of 12.41 trillion dollars, $700 billion is really not that frightening a figure, surprisingly). And with an annual growth rate of about 2-3 % (which is the standard in the US as far as I know, and one that is perceived as being normal and healthy) there's not a great deal there to worry anyone for the near future.
Furthermore, you have to remember: The rest of the world has a vested interest in maintaining a relatively stable US economy, as the US dollar is the standard against which most other currencies are measured, to say nothing of assorted economic agreements regarding exportation rights, NAFTA, etc.
Barring some financially cataclysmic war, the US isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It would be interesting to speculate: Had WW1 and 2 not drained the British economy, had uprisings in India not occurred, had the dissasemblement of its colonies not occurred: What sort of place would the UK be today?
I don't know. I suppose it might be interesting to think about. Maybe Turtledove could base a novel upon it, if he hasn't already.
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timeasmymeasure
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Date: 2006-07-19 01:41 am (UTC)Mind you, it's important to remember that GB took out a significant loan from the US to cover war-time expenses, which it has been slowly paying off for the last fifty or so odd years. (Interest is a bitch)
Speculation about which economic strong-hold will or will not fall into decline is a fairly...silly bit of speculation. There's an amusing West Wing annecdote, where Leo McGary meets with two economists, asking what the situation will be in a year. The first says "Excellent!", the second says "Terrible." Leo quietly whispers to himself "I hate economists."
The conventional form of this discussion as is being intimated here is that other economically significant countries in the world are developing at such a rate as to one day equal the (currently) unparalleled strength of the U.S. Arguments are made that the usage of exported labour could lead to a decline in American export value, and lower the significance of the average American who, whilst living in a post-Industrial world, does not actually produce anything *physical.*
Another argument is made that the massive fiscal imbalance - citing the current debt in which the U.S. finds itself - is also a basis upon which to say 'US is declining.' Except that the debt, in comparison to the annual GDP, is not all that troubling a matter. (When you have an annual GDP of 12.41 trillion dollars, $700 billion is really not that frightening a figure, surprisingly). And with an annual growth rate of about 2-3 % (which is the standard in the US as far as I know, and one that is perceived as being normal and healthy) there's not a great deal there to worry anyone for the near future.
Furthermore, you have to remember: The rest of the world has a vested interest in maintaining a relatively stable US economy, as the US dollar is the standard against which most other currencies are measured, to say nothing of assorted economic agreements regarding exportation rights, NAFTA, etc.
Barring some financially cataclysmic war, the US isn't going anywhere anytime soon. It would be interesting to speculate: Had WW1 and 2 not drained the British economy, had uprisings in India not occurred, had the dissasemblement of its colonies not occurred: What sort of place would the UK be today?
I don't know. I suppose it might be interesting to think about. Maybe Turtledove could base a novel upon it, if he hasn't already.